The Cope is doing well in the polls
DONEGAL Daily has been running flash online polls ahead of the General Election.
They are completely unscientific; and provide a mere snapshot of public opinion.
But proper polls commissioned from ‘experts’ are coming thick and fast and two in recent days in Donegal have thrown up widely differing results. Here Tirconaill Tribune Editor John McAteer casts his expert eye on the past few days….
By John McAteer
The volatile nature of voting intentions in Donegal have been strongly underlined in the huge differences between two polls carried out by national companies in the past week.
The TG4 poll published on Tuesday reveals a stark contrast to the weekend national polls that put SF on 47% in Donegal with FF on 20%.
How any set of polls taken in close proximity can show such a variance of 17% in the SF vote is hard to quantify since in effect nothing has changed to alter the opinion by such a wide percentage of public opinion.
By the same token the FF vote for Donegal has increased by 10% since the weekend… the problem may well be in the water!
Much of these massive differences can be attributed to uncertainty among a large section of a highly suspicious public who remain to be convinced by the parties that any of them can solve Donegal’s chronic economic, rural isolation and emigration issues.
There is obviously a large and undecided swing vote that could easily top 20% and the greater part of that may be coming from the Labour vote of 2011 ran to over 8% and they polled 6,300.
A 20% swing vote would equate to over 16,000 and that would be 3.5% over a quota.
With the weekend national opinion polls showing no clear cut winners in the General Election, party strategists are now turning their attention to the 29 constituencies outside of Dublin in a last ditch effort to increase their numbers in the 32nd Dail.
And Donegal is one of the counties where a new battle is developing between Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein as fears grow that FG’s only seat in the county could be rocking.
However there is a historic record of all outgoing Deputies having a 70% chance of being returned to office and it would be one of the upsets of this election nationally if either Joe McHugh or Padraig MacLochlainn were in any serious risk of losing their seats.
Meanwhile an Ipsos MRBI poll in Donegal for TG4 puts SF and FF on 30% each with Independents on 23% and FG on 17%.
The shock findings put SF’s Padriag MacLochlainn on 9% with Thomas Pringle polling 7% alongside Dessie Shiels. Pearse Doherty tops this poll with 19%.
Junior Minister Joe McHugh is on 13% and with most polls showing the FG vote continuing to crash. It has already fallen sharply from its position of 25.8% at the last general election: this figure excludes the nine polling districts south of Laghey that are no longer in this constituency.
At the same time the FF figure for 2011 with the same electoral areas excluded reads 20.1%. The SF result gave them a 28.8% share from 2011 while the Independents group would have reflected a figure of 14.7%.
However the biggest casualty is Labour; they polled 8.1% across this area in 2011 and nowadays they are barely able to score 1% in most polls.
This large Labour figure of almost 6,300 first preferences could hold the key to the destination of the final seat.
Despite the SF supremacy, the polls show no change in party structures in Donegal.
The prediction is SF 2: FF 1: FG 1 and Independents 1: similar to earlier predictions. However FF is claiming to be on 24/26 and with two substantial first preferences they are hoping these figures will give each of their candidates 66.5% of the quota in each instance.
The volatility of these polls is a direct result of the swing vote which could be as high as 20% at this point in the campaign. In effect, what no poll can predict is how the swing vote will play out on polling day and Donegal is no exception given the changing face of politics here in recent elections.
However, the new TG 4 poll will set alarm bells ringing for Joe McHugh supporters who over the past number of days have been saying the handling of the loss of beds in three nursing homes in the centre of the constituency is doing the party untold damage.
Donegal is being targeted by FF as a potential to give them two seats; but with SF riding high in the constituency polls the race for the final seat has become a real lottery and impossible to call.
FF nationally is hoping to win at least one seat in all rural constituencies and have targeted a possible two seats in
Weekend national polls have put SF on 47% in Donegal with FF on 20%: FG on 16% and others on 17%.
Despite the SF supremacy in Donegal, the national polls show no change in party structures in the constituency.
The prediction is SF 2: FF 1: FG 1 and Independents 1: similar to earlier predictions.
However FF is telling their supporters at meetings they are on 24/26% and with two substantial first preferences they are hoping these figures will give each of their candidates 66.5% of the quota in each instance.
Such a scenario would deliver a first preference of 17,500: however a 20% figure would fall short of that by at least 1,500 crucial votes and it is now clearly evident where they might make up the shortfall.
Bu if the TG4 poll was to hold firm FF would be guaranteed two seats and could well rue their decision not field three runners. In effect that 30% share would give them around 24,000 on a 66.67% turnout. Enough for the Cope to celebrate his 68th birthday on the day the new Dail sits for the first time.
Sinn Fein has been busy dampening down any talk of taking three seats. One particular party sage confided they’d need to see a redirection of the Signs of the Zodiac for that to happen. However in a very volatile election with FG in all kinds of trouble over the plan to shut down permanent beds in three nursing home in the constituency, it is really all to play for as we enter the final fortnight of a contest.
A contest that has been remarkable only by the swing vote: the volatility and the lack of the direction in party strategies apathy and lack of public interest.
There is confusion about such terms as ‘fiscal space’ ‘having a conversation around the economy’ and this load of waffle is being measured by a sceptical electorate who’ve not witnessed much progress in rural constituencies in the past generation.
Too many villages across rural constituencies have seen many shops, facilities and services withdrawn: 139 Garda Stations have been closed by this Govt and many communities live in fear, locked in and locked out of a fair deal by the government of the day. There is a woeful lack of Broadband and mobile phone signals and empty houses litter the landscape as our most precious asset…the community, falls into ever great depopulation. And as numbers decline there is
And the real reminder for many Donegal households is loved ones on Skype from Australia wondering about how things are at home and if Rover (the dog) is still barking at the moon.
The feeble claim by Govt. Ministers about their plan to lure emigrants back to Ireland does not seem to have struck a chord with those disenfranchised voters – now some six thousand miles removed from this election campaign.
Indeed one irate punter has placed and advert in the local press advising all election candidates to stay away from his home at Termon.