A NEW analysis by Radio na Gaeltachta at Derrybeg of a number of party opinion polls as the year ended has thrown up a number of new challenges, especially for Fine Gael and Fianna Fail.
By John McAteer, Tirconaill Tribune
The latest analyses comes after a number of political developments towards the end of 2015. We understand that one of FF’s most senior political figures met with party representatives in Donegal to revisit the decision to run only two candidates in the county.
The top secret meeting took place in a well-known Donegal hotel in the south of the county some two weeks prior to Christmas.
It is also believed that Deputy Dinny McGinley has come under renewed pressure from FG to reconsider his decision to retire in a last ditch attempt to bolster their share of vote after a number of private polls showed them battling to hold one seat.
The analyses of the Donegal constituency by Radio Na Gaeltachta’s ‘Barrscealta’ on Tuesday shows no dramatic changes from that of the Tribune poll in October apart from a drop of 5% for Fine Gael and the Independent vote dropping by around 3.7%. At the same time there is no appreciable increase in the FF share of the poll.
Frances Nic Gheadaigh said they have now combined the polls conducted by all the main parties in recent months to give them a broad analysis of political opinion in Donegal.
The RnG analysis shows FG not home and dry for one seat while FF is facing a huge battle for a second seat. At the same time SF seems certain to hold their two seats with Thomas Pringle the strongest of the Independent candidates by a long shot.
“These figures,” she explained “are based on the polls already carried out by the mainstream parties in Donegal and we combined them to produce an average result for all the parties.”
The Tribune Poll conducted for the October 29th edition showed SF on 34.5%: FF 22.9%: FG 21.2%: and Independents on 19.7%.
While the poll of polls is quite similar to the Tribune’s survey, the new analysis is not doing any favours for Joe McHugh who is finding it difficult to reach above 12%.
Amid speculation that outgoing TD, Dinny McGinley has come under intense pressure to enter the race it is also believed that Fianna Fail is still considering a third candidate.
The RnG result puts FF one point ahead of the Tribune poll some ten weeks earlier.
The new analysis shows FF battling for their lives to win a second seat. The Tribune poll put Charlie McConalogue on a personal share of 12.3% and the poll of polls puts him in line to take the third constituency seat.
There is much speculation that Fianna Fail urgently needs a renewed focus to attract the under thirty vote with Sinn Fein now seen as gaining most from the FF decision to select only two runners.
The poll of polls shows SF sure of holding their two seats with Cllr. Gary Doherty in a fair old battle to stay in the race into the final stages of the count.
RnG said their analysis shows that outgoing Deputy Charlie McConalogue likely to hold the third seat after Padraig MacLochlainn and Pearse Doherty are elected.
The fourth seat is potentially that for Fine Gael to win…or lose. There are a number of caveats in the mix. Seemingly this includes finding a ‘second candidate’ that can attract a vote to support McHugh with preferences as the count progresses. And it would seem that having a candidate in Donegal South West is an imperative. FG grassroots supporters say that as the election comes closer they see no alternative than Dinny McGinley as their preferred second runner.
It had been anticipated that FG would have named Paddy Harte Junior as their second candidate ahead of their constituency AGM in late November after Cllr. Martin Harley indicated he was not interested in running.
Harte polled 4.3% in the Tribune with Harley on 2.6%.
The Tribune poll put FG on a share of just under 22%. Now the poll of polls shows losing as much as 5% of that in recent weeks.
The poll of polls gives the Independents a share of 16%; down by 3.7% since the Tribune poll.
Sources who’ve read the RnG analysis are of the view that the final seat is going to a battle between FF and Independent TD, Thomas Pringle with Sinn Fein transfers most likely to have a huge influence on the outcome.
Meanwhile there is renewed speculation this week that FF Headquarters is considering the possibility of a ‘young’ candidate amid fears that a large swathe of the Letterkenny FF vote may go to Cllr. Dessie Shiels.
This is seen as a viable vote of no confidence in senior officials at Party Headquarters and as a reminder that the voice of the grassroots cannot be ignored on an ongoing basis.
However a FF source told the Tribune that even if the party goes for a third runner it is more likely to be South of the Gap in the former Donegal SW constituency and it may well be in line with their desire to ensure the gender balance is not ignored.
A number of new factors have also been introduced in recent times. The decision by Tim Jackson to enter the race in a ‘Clean up Politics Campaign’ has ignited much interest with a large number of young voters on his team.
Meanwhile Cllr. Niamh Kennedy based in Killybegs has attracted good publicity in her decision to support the Glenties Anti Wind Farm group.
She has further undertaken to represent whatever issues are important to the people of the county.
The Glenties Group say the development of wind farms in the county is something that needs to be addressed urgently. Community groups in Glenties, Ardara, Killygordon, the Finn Valley, Laghey, Inishowen and many other places are tired out fighting repeat applications.
The group says: “We are at one with Cllr Kennedy when she says: “It’s time to say enough is enough. Tellingly she also points to the huge number of wind farms in this County and muses “One can only ask why?”
Tim Jackson hails from Ballybofey and is well placed to appeal to the new emerging generation of voters with a profile that embraces a large interest amongst the electorate. He’s just opened his campaign office in the centre of Ballybofey and has confessed that he’s been overwhelmed with the level of support from across such a wide base of political interests in Donegal.
Tim Jackson is 26 and in close touch with the views and concerns of his own generation. A forester by profession he founded the Africa-based building charity ‘Homes From Donegal’ says the goal of the campaign is to have candidates who run in the election agree to four policy points concerning politicians’ earnings, on the basis that TD’s who earn closer to the average wage will better understand the impact their decisions in the Dáil have on normal voters.
The four policy points are: – TD’s salaries will be halved, from just under €90k to €45k. – All expenses must be vouched with receipts. – Tax-payer funding of political parties, currently almost €13m per annum, will cease. – Ministerial and backbench pensions will be reduced to the average public service rate
Jackson said: “By asking a politician to sign-up to these policies, we’re essentially sorting the wheat from the chaff, testing them to see who is in the job primarily for their enormous pay-packet, and who is in the job to simply build a better Ireland.”
A public petition in support of Clean Up Politics has begun online and at the doorsteps, and Jackson has invited all voters to take an active part in ensuring their candidates fully endorse the initiative, prioritising its goals if elected.”
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