FORECASTERS have issued a weather warning for Co Donegal for Monday, and warn a Big Freeze could follow next weekend with temperatures falling as low as -10C.
Peter O’Donnell from Irish Weather Online says latest weather models show that snow showers on Monday and Tuesday will be accompanied by winds gusting to 110km/hr.
He says some models are warning of severe cold spell to follow from next weekend, although he says this is less certain at this stage.
“We have issued an alert for severe wintry weather arriving on Monday (afternoon to evening) in the form of wintry showers, snow on at least higher ground, and very strong winds gusting to 110 km/hr at times on Monday and Tuesday,” said Peter today.
“With somewhat less confidence, we are also looking further ahead to possible severe cold by the following weekend if some models are correct, and that might bring temperatures as low as -10 C over any snow cover that develops, otherwise about -7 C. There might also be limited recovery in the daytime with the possibility of freezing fog and “ice days” where daily maxima are also below freezing.
“Confidence on the early phase of strong winds and wintry showers is about 90% now, and remains about 50-60 per cent on the severe cold to follow. It should be noted that the GFS model has begun to show this severe cold on today’s guidance, and the leading European model continues about as before, so now it’s only some of the less reliable guidance that is hesitant on the severe cold.”
MONDAY … Windy and turning colder in stages, with showers or drizzly rain in a strong to gale force westerly, temperatures steady 7-9 C during the early morning hours, then slowly falling to about 3-5 C later in the morning to mid-day for south which will see the cold front passing around 10:00 a.m. to noon, later showers possibly becoming wintry by afternoon and evening especially in Connacht and West Ulster, as temperatures continue to drift down in a strong westerly wind. There could be some hail and thunder with a second cold front arriving during the overnight hours. The overnight period will be very windy with blustery showers of sleet, hail and snow, and possibly some thunder, with temperatures not far from 1-2 C on average (the flow is coming straight from Greenland and over the near Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures of 9-10 C will warm the lower levels of this very cold air to about 3-5 C but those temperatures will only be felt briefly on land near sea-level, then temperatures will fall off rather quickly in the air mass when it loses contact with the ocean — this process will also generate a strong potential for thundery showers some of which could be snow and hail).
TUESDAY … Very windy and cold with mixed wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow (accumulating to 3-7 cm on some northern hills) with west to northwest gale force winds 70-110 km/hr, risk of some severe gusts in the north, and temperatures steady in the 2-4 C range possibly dropping to 0-2 C where snow accumulates. The rain-snow line will rapidly fall to about 150m or lower and some of the passing squally showers could be thundery with large hail or snow. Blizzard-like conditions may develop in higher sections of the north. It will feel exceptionally cold in the wind and conditions may become severe for livestock in higher elevations especially. The northern coastal areas will be seeing near-hurricane force wind gusts at times and together with western Scotland they may be experiencing this as a sort of wintry version of a tropical storm force event (force 10-12 winds in the range of 50-70 knots over the North Atlantic both west and north of Donegal Bay).
WEEKEND OUTLOOK … Colder again with the possibility of some snow streamers in eastern and central counties, as well as some parts of the northwest. Winds generally from the northeast although ranging from east to a little west of due north as troughs move southwest around the remnants of the earlier storm (by now in the Alps region of Europe). Severe cold may develop during the weekend, but for now we will suggest lows -5 to -2 C and highs -1 to +3 C with variable skies and some sunshine, also some patchy ice fog well inland, streamers of snow near east coast and Donegal Bay. The coldest part of this pattern is suggested for about Monday 11th and could persist for several days. At some point there could be highs below freezing and lows in the -10 to -7 C range, even colder if snow cover developed and clear skies followed. This scenario is the most likely, but there is some chance of a milder outcome with highs in the 4-7 C range and mixed or sleety precipitation in this time frame.
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